Track Flu Trends on Your Desktop

Desktop Flu TrackerRoche Laboratories has produced an interesting marketing adjunct to its famous Tamiflu® (oseltamivir) drug: The Tamiflu Desktop Flu Tracker. The software tracks the latest trends of reported influenza cases throughout the United States and generates a geographical representation of disease demographics. The Desktop Flu Tracker also lets you set alerts for flu outbreaks in different neighborhoods. Additional preventative health information is included. Learn the classic symptoms of flu and how it differs from the common cold.

The program currently runs on Windows (98SE and above). It is not available for the MacOS.

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Predicting the Risk of SIDS

Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS) is the leading cause of infant death within the first year of life. Death occurs suddenly and without identifiable cause. Clinical investigation and autopsy may not reveal evidence of SIDS. SIDS is therefore a diagnosis of exclusion (after excluding other possibilities, such as trauma, child abuse, or poisoning). Other diagnostic methods may include radiology, microbiology, and histology. Although the cause of SIDS is still unknown, several risk factors have been identified. The recommendation to have infants sleep in a supine position has reduced the incidence of SIDS. Congenital and genetic risk factors have also been implicated in the syndrome.

Researchers in Cambridge, United Kingdom, recently published in the journal
Pediatrics
a model to estimate the risk of SIDS based on a retrospective study of 505011 singleton births. The model takes into account several demographic variables, including maternal age, marital status, parity, smoking status, birth weight, and sex of child

To estimate the risk of SIDS, the likelihood ratio for each variable is first determined through tables (available in the journal article). The likelihood ratios are then multiplied together: total LR = LR1 x LR2 x … x LRn. The total LR is used to calculate the post-test odds (post-test odds = pre-test odds x total LR). The risk of SIDS is 1/(post-test odds).

  • Source
  • Smith GC, White IR. Predicting the risk for sudden infant death syndrome from obstetric characteristics: a retrospective cohort study of 505011 live births. Pediatrics 2006;117;60-6.

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Declining Deaths from Cancer

cancer zodiacThe National Cancer Institute recently published the 2005 update of the Cancer Trends Progress Report. The document tracks several key measures related to cancer, including health habits, early screening, diagnosis, treatment, and mortality. The good news is that death rates for the most common cancers (prostate, breast, lung, and colorectal) have continued to decline. These positive trends may stem from continual health promotion, more aggressive cancer screening, and advancing treatment regimens. The bad news is that cancer is now the leading cause of death for people under 85, and the incidence of the most common cancers (prostate, female breast, and lung) continues to increase.

Confused? Be careful to differentiate the mortality rate (deaths per 100,000 people per year) from the incidence (new cases per 100,000 people per year). Early screening has permitted doctors to catch cancers at earlier, less severe, and more treatable stages. In other words, even though the number of cancer cases continues to increase, early intervention is influencing the odds of survival.